Setting a basis for economic planning

Zimbabwe has embarked on the Short Term Economic Recovery Plan (STERP), which is underpinned by the manufacturing sector. STERP is consistent, in character, with previous economic policies coined after independence in Zimbabwe. What is most disconcerting about this policy and its predecessors is that it is not based on an accurate understanding of the country’s ability to manufacture or develop its mining and agricultural bases at that. The global credit crunch of 2008-2009 has highlighted the weakness of ‘assumed fundamentals’ that are characteristic of free market and command economies. The time has come to take stock and give an accurate assessment of what the country can realistically produce for the purpose of achieving real success in economic development.
Effective strategic planning can only be achieved when information that is accurate and precise is readily available. Industrial planning for economic growth requires intricate knowledge of various human and machine capabilities and the supply of raw materials. In essence industry needs to be studied by engineers just the same way biologists study ecosystems, measuring the factors of production and balancing demand and supply from sources of raw materials right up to the level of consumption and to ensuring that the aggregate industry is sustainable and continues to develop as opposed to being stagnant as Zimbabwe’s industry has been for so long.
Key variables that need to be taken into consideration are the capability of industry to produce a range of products and secondly the capacity of output that industry can produce.
The technical capability of an industry to produce quality goods is dependent on a number of factors particularly the available raw materials, available processes and processing plant and equipment, and available expertise. A number of other factors come into play by virtue of their effect on these. Without a clear understanding of these factors of production no strategies formulated to develop a manufacturing economy can be even marginally successful.
During Rhodesian days, regular audits would be carried out to determine the state of various sectors of the economy and the results of these would serve as governments’ basis for the development of policies for economic development; projecting employment trends, and economic output among other things, for fifteen to twenty years. At present there is no accurate data that relates to Zimbabwe’s industrial technical capability and capacity.
The least that could be done is for government to get an appreciation of what can be produced and where, the cost of production, how to develop the country’s production technology, and the skills that are available locally.
Without this basic knowledge all efforts to stimulate economic growth are directed blindly as there are no actual metrics available to determine where resources should be directed for greatest benefit.
A comprehensive survey of industries across the country would be instrumental in gathering this information and give a basis for the formulation of real policies with any real potential of success. The result of this exercise will give a basis for answering the question about the abundance of Zimbabwe; what sector should Zimbabwe’s economy be based on. Much as this question on the surface may seem quite trivial, its implications in so far as infrastructural development and in fact everything from academic curricular to the length of the working week is quite dependent upon this.

Full report available upon request.